The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) lowered its forecast for traditional car audio by 7 percent in wholesale dollars this month compared to its earlier projections in January. It also lowered its forecast for video-centric 12 volt products (mobile video/navigation, AV decks/car camera) by 2 percent.
Sales were weaker than expected in 2016 causing the CTA to lower forecasts in 2017, it said.
The new forecast now calls for total sales of $1.347 billion wholesale, for car audio and video combined (after subtracting sales of portable navigation devices or PNDs). For 2018, the aftermarket is expected to see an increase in sales to $1.362 billion. But then sales fall over the next few years to $1.317 billion by 2021. (The chart above shows total sales with and without PNDs).
The growth for this year is in mobile video (AV, navigation, cameras, dash cams). Unit sales will increase in the category by 3 percent and dollar sales by 2 percent above last year. Dollar sales to dealers for AV and navigation decks will total $280 million compared to $277 million last year.
Audio-only head unit sales are expected to fall by 3 percent in units and 5 percent in dollars to $300 million from $315 million last year.
Amp sales are forecast to drop by 1 percent in units this year and 2 percent in dollars to $147 million, down from $150 million last year. Speakers are forecast to decline by 1 percent in units and 3 percent in dollars to $263 million, down from $272 million last year.
The CTA said of mobile video which includes AV and navigation decks, “…the overall market for mobile video and navigation products is treading water. Expect overall revenues to remain flat this year, continuing the trend of price declines sapping hopes of growth…” However, the CTA credited CarPlay, Android Auto and Pandora as helping to shore up prices on navigation decks.