At the recent distributor show by GoFast in Massachusetts, Steve Greenfield presented a keynote address on what car audio dealers can expect as the industry shifts to electric vehicles.
It’s Greenfields’s job to know what’s coming down the pike as he heads a venture capital company called Automotive Ventures that invests in EV-related and other startups. Here’s what he told 12 volt retailers:
The automotive industry is going to change more in the next 10 years than it has in the last 100. “Electrification is coming and that will have huge changes in your business.”
Battery technology, data from the car, and over-the-air (OTA) updates are among the changes car audio dealers must contend with in the future.
Over-the-Air Updates
Over-the-air updates will change the way we sell features. Cars will be produced with all the accessories pre-loaded and these will be activated through monthly subscriptions paid for by car owners.
BMW started building rear heated seats in the car but it only activates them when the user subscribes. You can activate Tesla’s self-driving feature for $14K or, on any given month, for $199/month. “This is the future despite the fact that a lot of consumers feel that it is offensive,” Greenfield said.
The aftermarket will play a role in terms of helping consumers to know what features are available for their car, he said. Perhaps dealers will receive stipends from car makers for helping a consumer to activate a feature, Greenfield said.
A customer who comes into a shop may not know they have the option of rear heated seats. “If you can understand the features in the car on every single vehicle that comes in and understand the path to unlock it, there’s revenue to be had,” Greenfield said.
“There’s going to be an aftermarket hack to unlock say rear seats or …the automakers, I believe will be happy to share some of the revenue, if you unlock the features,” he predicted.
Battery Technology
Of course, battery technology is going to play a bigger role in automotive. “Batteries right now don’t have modular technology. If you damage one cell, you have to replace the entire battery,” said Greenfield. For a Tesla, that can be in the tens of thousands of dollars. Greenfield adds, ‘Battery technology will have a tremendous effect on 12 volt dealers.’
Some aftermarket shops are already installing a redundant electrical system in EVs to help power the aftermarket sound system, he said, noting, “Manufacturers will try to lock you out.”
He suggests that dealers and the industry actively support Right to Repair legislation to make sure the aftermarket has continued access to the new cars. You can petition Congress for the right to repair here. (We will report on this in a separate story).
Other New Car Facts, Predictions
Cars are going to be more complex to service and they’ll require special tools, so many consumers will take them to the car dealership, rather than to say a Jiffy Lube.
But even the car dealers will see less repair work. EVs require a third of the servicing as Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. ICE vehicles have 2,000 moving parts while an EV has 20. Also many repairs will be performed via over-the-air software updates.
Consultants believe that by 2030 half of the vehicles purchased will be electric. “I will tell you the US consumer is not ready to embrace EVs,” Greenfield said. This is due to range anxiety and the inconvenience of waiting 40 minutes to charge at public ‘fast charging’ stations. Plus, as many as one out of five of public charging stations are out of service, according to a recent NY Times article. Greenfield thinks we’ll hit a plateau in buying when EVs reach 25 to 30 percent of sales.
He does note that prices will come down on EVs starting as early as nine months from now. As many as 150 new EV models are expected to flood the market over the next two years. “We are going to see an oversupply of EVs in some segments,” which will lead to price cuts, he said.
For more information on Greenfield see www.automotiveventures.com
Photo: Steve Greenfield (left) being introduced at 2023 GoFast Expo by Chris Cook of MEA.
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Sounds to me like there is money to be made finding ways to unlocks stuff like heated seats without a subscription 🙂
We have already begun making video processors and input control modules for EV’s to keep the entertainment and interface aftermarket relevant as well. Many more fun things to come!