Autonomous Cars a Scam?

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Update on Autonomous Cars

Five years ago, automotive leaders predicted that autonomous cars would be fairly commonplace by now. Lyft predicted a majority of its rides would be in self driving vehicles by 2021.

We saw new forms of in-car audio/video systems emerging at CES 2019 that promised “immersive” infotainment in these new cars. Disney and Warner Brothers were busy displaying such prototype systems.

Now, some of the industry’s leaders say that true self-driving vehicles may be decades in the offing.

And given that $100 billion has been spent by inventors on autonomous cars with very little to show for it, some have even called the market segment a hoax.

George Hotz, President of Comma.ai self-driving technology said it’s “a scam,” according to Bloomberg. Self-driving companies have squandered tens of billions of dollars, he said.

Forbes reported on Monday that self-driving startups have lost $40 billion in stock market valuation in the past two years,. Industry pioneer Waymo went from a valuation of $175 billion to $30 billion, said Bloomberg.

Anthony Levandowski, who helped found the industry at Google (when it owned Waymo) told Autoblog that the industry is still at the advanced “demo stage.” “We’re going to get there at some point. But we have such a long way to go,” he said.

“…despite all the money thrown at the problem by Google, Uber, Tesla, Zoox, Cruise, and countless others, autonomous cars are no closer to reality today than they were 5 years ago, and many of those companies are running for the exits, looking to cut their losses if they can,” wrote CleanTechnica.

There are still many issues that confound driverless cars, including the typical left turn. Rain and snow can cause an issue. So can a low flying plane, deer on the road shoulder, pigeons by the median, or vehicles cutting across many lanes of traffic without signaling.

To overcome these obstacles will require a major break though in the technology, not just a few more years of plugging away, said Autoblog.

Waymo’s current self-driving fleet is in the hundreds of cars, rather than the tens of thousands it had expected by this time, analyst Mark Fitzgerald of Strategy Analytics told CEoutlook.

Overall, true autonomous vehicles (Level 4/5) won’t hit 10 percent of the market until after 2035, he said.  That last two percent of operational design in self-driving cars is the problem.  It includes sun glare, outdated mapping details, toll booths, water-filled potholes, overhanging vegetation, downed power lines, icing, uncooperative people, falling objects, and more.

“The big question is: Can a company afford eight to ten years of R&D before widespread autonomous vehicle deployment and little to no revenue?  Traditional automakers are already heavily spending on powertrain electrification and software development,” he noted.

Finally, if the true benefit of autonomous vehicles is safety on the roads, CleanTechnica concludes we’d be better off focusing on “getting drunks, texters, and speeders off the road,” as most fatal accidents are caused by one of these offenders.

 

Photo: Intel teamed with Warner Brothers at the 2019 CES to show infotainment for self-driving cars.

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2 Comments

  1. The same thing as Crypto currency. It’s all a hoax, the rich will get richer and the dummies will lose every penny.

    1. “Hoax” and “Scam” are a bit strong. They’re both in their infancy and some economists may have overestimated their adoption, but to say either are fake is just not based in reality.

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