The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) forecasts that aftermarket driver safety will see a staggering 81 percent increase in dollar sales to dealers this year, following a 43 percent increase last year.
In its first forecast on aftermarket driving safety, the CTA said it is “cautiously optimistic concerning the aftermarket ADAS industry.”
Aftermarket ADAS systems defined by the CTA as blind spot detection, lane departure warning and collision warning systems, will grow by 85 percent in units this year and 40 percent in 2019.
Unit sales will hit 347,000, up from 188,000 last year. Dollar sales will hit $39 million in 2018, up from $21 million a year ago.
CTA’s longer range forecast, shows ADAS dollar sales growth going flat by 2021, but that view is subject to change. “There’s a lot of upside potential,” said CTA Senior Director Market Research Steve Koenig noting that longer range forecasts can depend on factors such as “new competition entering the market, new solutions entering the market, if the market starts to segment or if demand really rises. That’s why we re-forecast every six months. This is what we see for now.”
Koenig suggests that to fully benefit from ADAS, the aftermarket may need to go beyond passive solutions like forward collision warning and offer active solutions like full forward collision avoidance systems as found on new vehicles today. He questions is that even possible? And would a new installer certification program be required? Would it be possible to turn a standard car into a self-driving car via the aftermarket?
By the year 2021, CTA forecasts aftermarket ADAS sales to dealers of $58 million, or 550,000 units.
The CTA also now tracks security, rear view cameras and dashcams under the broader heading of Safety, Security and ADAS.
Rear view cameras will see unit sales this year of 936,000, up 20 percent and dollar sales of $60 million, up 18 percent.
Dashcams will hit 285,000 units or $39 million in sales, up 20 and 16 percent, respectively, in units and dollars.