Don’t expect the Apple iPad to lose much share through this year and next, even with a deluge of competitive tablets on the way this fall and early in 2011.
The iPad will take a 74.1 percent share of global tablet shipments this year. It’s stake will drop only slightly next year to a 70.4 percent share of shipments and even in 2012, its share will still amount to almost 2/3rds of tablet shipments or 61.7 percent, said iSuppli.
Even with an outpouring of tablets to reach the market over the next six months, “it will take some time for these companies to get their products to market, longer for them to offer necessary software support and infrastructure, and an even lengthier period to begin to rival the overall user experience Apple is able to deliver,” said iSuppli director of monitor research Rhoda Alexander.
iSuppli based its conclusions on the smart phone market. It took Apple iPhone competitors almost 3 years to launch successful rivals. Even the Google G1 and the Palm Pre could not compete. Truly comparable devices with some superior features didn’t emerge until 29 months later starting with the Motorola Droid, followed by the HTC Evo 4G, 36 months from the iPhone’s launch in 2007.
“Companies are quickly developing products that match or exceed some of the surface hardware specifications of the Apple iPad. But it’s still unlikely that any of the competitors will be able to equal the overall performance experience of the iPad…we don’t see anything in the marketplace at present that seems likely to rival what Apple is offering in tablets today,” said Alexander. That’s not good news for the Dell Streak which launched in August.
iSuppli acknowledged expectations of a Samsung a Galaxy tablet, and RIM BlackPad. But it said HP’s expected WebOS tablet will be the closest iPad rival. HP has years of experience in producing PC-type products. But its tablets won’t likely be ready until 2011.
As for a Google Chrome OS tablet rumored for Black Friday, November 26, iSuppli said, “that seems unlikely, given that iSuppli sources indicate the initial Chrome OS does not have touch screen display support. Any touch-enabled Chrome-based device would be more likely to appear in 2011 or beyond. Even then, Google faces some significant challenges in premiering a new operating system and migrating directly from smart phones to tablets,” Alexander said.
Some other rumored tablets include a Toshiba product due as early as September/October for global distribution. It will have a 10-inch screen and run Android with Nvidia’s Tegra 2 processor, said Digitimes.
In the first quarter, a Google/Motorola branded tablet may be offered through Verizon using Android’s upcoming 3.0 (Gingerbread) OS. Acer may offer a Gingerbread tablet at that time as well.
Many Windows 7 based tablets are also due by Christmas, although analysts say that Windows 7 is not an ideal OS for tablets.
In July, iSuppli said it expects Apple to ship just shy of 13 million iPads in 2010, tripling to 36.5 million in 2011 and growing to 50.4 million in 2012.
Source: iSuppli
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